Wed, Dec 7, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Rangers 5, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 115 | 011 | 411 | 537 |
| VGK | 05 | 117 | 04 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: K'Andre Miller, Jacob Trouba · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:38VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.37 xG1–1
- P3 5:59NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 6:23NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 7:52NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 11:34NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.11 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 18:10VGKJonas Rondbjerg: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:04NYRVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:10NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:37NYRBarclay Goodrow: Interference2 min
- P2 15:37VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44NYRBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:44VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:28VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:06NYRJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:50VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:30VGKBrayden McNabb: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:21VGKChandler Stephenson: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Blais – Gauthier8:33
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Kakko – Lafrenière9:57
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Panarin – Chytil9:36
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Kreider – Trocheck – Vesey9:40
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller15:53
xG 0.66–0.49 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:01
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Hajek – Schneider13:02
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Smith – Karlsson3:43
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Carrier – Kolesar – Leschyshyn2:07
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault5:26
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Carrier – Roy3:07
xG 0.01–0.01 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:17
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Hague – Miromanov15:02
xG 0.28–0.34 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud14:46
xG 0.40–0.79 (34%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).