Thu, Dec 8, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 09 | 013 | 029 |
| TOR | 015 | 415 | 111 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:10TORPierre EngvallPPGWGAssists: Conor Timmins, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:36TORDavid KampfAssists: Pontus Holmberg, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 6:16TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Michael Bunting, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 13:29TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Slap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 9:37TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Michael Bunting · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:19LAKMatt Roy: Interference2 min
- P1 12:06LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:37TORMark Giordano: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:34LAKBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:34TORZachary Aston-Reese: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:34LAKBlake Lizotte: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:07TORPierre Engvall: Match penalty5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Fiala – Vilardi2:54
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kaliyev5:03
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kempe – Vilardi – Iafallo7:50
xG 0.10–0.50 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Grundstrom – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte9:00
xG 0.02–0.66 (3%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Roy3:13
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson13:55
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Roy – Durzi13:27
xG 0.35–1.04 (25%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews7:41
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Tavares – Marner – Malgin2:37
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Holmberg4:09
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf5:41
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin13:17
xG 1.25–0.20 (86%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Giordano – Holl14:04
xG 0.96–0.28 (77%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Brodie – Timmins9:48
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).