Thu, Dec 8, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 25 | 25 | 520 |
| STL | 010 | 19 | 112 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:49WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Mark Scheifele, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:27WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Michael Eyssimont, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 4:06WPGBlake WheelerPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 18:36STLRobert ThomasAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Calle Rosen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 7:39WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 10:43STLJosh LeivoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 18:07WPGCole PerfettiENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.52 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:58WPGDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:26STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:35WPGCole Perfetti: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Harkins – Barron7:08
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Harkins – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson2:35
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti8:14
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lowry – Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron2:36
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:45
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Stanley14:26
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Dillon – Pionk17:10
xG 0.42–0.84 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Leivo13:55
xG 0.91–0.28 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Saad – Barbashev – Acciari6:59
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Saad – Barbashev – Bitten5:38
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas14:06
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Rosen14:35
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Leddy – Parayko17:31
xG 0.70–0.44 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Rosen2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).