Thu, Dec 8, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 214 | 013 | 12 | 02 | 331 |
| DAL | 27 | 08 | 112 | 15 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:55DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Nils Lundkvist · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 13:52OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 18:47OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mathieu Joseph · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 1:27OTTTravis HamonicAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 14:54DALNils LundkvistAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 4:31DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.33 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:24DALMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:49DALJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:01DALNils Lundkvist: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:07OTTDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:44OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:58
xG 1.11–0.26 (81%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Motte – Joseph – Gambrell5:17
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic6:17
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto12:05
xG 0.26–0.51 (33%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson16:34
xG 1.26–0.63 (67%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Holden – Brannstrom10:21
xG 0.27–0.42 (38%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev16:32
xG 0.49–0.72 (40%)attempts 16–22goals 2–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:32
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Benn – Seguin – Marchment2:01
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Marchment – Johnston2:45
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Marchment7:12
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Lundkvist13:50
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 18–16goals 3–2
- Suter – Heiskanen2:38
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Miller12:23
xG 0.51–0.72 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).