Fri, Dec 9, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 06 | 114 | 132 |
| CBJ | 19 | 18 | 110 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Jack Roslovic, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 2:52CBJEric RobinsonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 17:26CGYMichael StoneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:36CBJSean KuralyENAssists: Boone Jenner, Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:09CBJMathieu Olivier: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:49CBJPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:15CGYNoah Hanifin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:45CGYNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P2 14:03CBJJack Roslovic: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:53CBJCole Sillinger: Charging2 min
- P3 1:59CGYTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:05CGYChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:07CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:32CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:32CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:50CBJMarcus Bjork: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:46CBJMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube8:03
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Ruzicka7:06
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm7:00
xG 0.02–0.14 (13%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Zohorna4:23
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Weegar11:24
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Stone – Zadorov6:42
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson10:02
xG 0.31–0.77 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Robinson3:13
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Gaudreau – Jenner8:52
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Laine – Chinakhov10:02
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Marchenko – Johnson – Sillinger4:35
xG 0.19–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni6:49
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Gavrikov6:41
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Berni – Bjork2:50
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).