Fri, Dec 9, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 6, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 317 | 13 | 632 |
| NJD | 19 | 19 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:32NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:37NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Alexander Romanov · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 19:51NYIAnders LeeAssists: Alexander Romanov, Scott Mayfield · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 3:31NYICasey CizikasAssists: Matt Martin, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 4:05NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P2 6:03NJDDawson MercerAssists: Jack Hughes, Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 16:47NYIBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 1:00NYICal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG6–2
- P3 2:30NJDTomas TatarAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.08 xG6–3
- P3 13:39NJDJack HughesAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jonas Siegenthaler · Snap, 0.09 xG6–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:41NJDAlexander Holtz: Interference2 min
- P1 4:59NYIRyan Pulock: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:06NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:28NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:05NYIAlexander Romanov: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:05NJDMichael McLeod: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:05NJDMichael McLeod: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 12:05NJDMichael McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:42NJDAlexander Holtz: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:38NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:16
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Lee – Nelson2:32
xG 0.07–0.12 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom7:47
xG 0.26–0.41 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom5:14
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov5:02
xG 0.65–0.10 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Pulock – Aho7:19
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Salo2:55
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Bratt – Hischier8:52
xG 0.74–0.59 (56%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Wood – McLeod – Zetterlund5:49
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Sharangovich – Holtz3:36
xG 0.13–0.42 (23%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Haula – Hughes – Mercer8:37
xG 0.36–0.71 (33%)attempts 12–9goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Severson7:09
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Graves2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Graves2:15
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).