Fri, Dec 9, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Seattle Kraken 1, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 16 | 06 | 014 | 126 |
| WSH | 012 | 215 | 211 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:51SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Morgan Geekie, Karson Kuhlman · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 5:20WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Matt Irwin, Alexander Alexeyev · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 13:15WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: Sonny Milano, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 18:54WSHLars EllerENAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–3
- P3 19:56WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:48SEAJamie Oleksiak: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P2 19:56SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:22WSHSonny Milano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:49WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:06SEAYanni Gourde: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Tanev – Geekie2:01
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Wennberg – Sprong2:18
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gourde – Donato – Tanev5:54
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky – Wennberg10:13
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Larsson2:26
xG 0.01–0.05 (23%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen9:48
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak8:28
xG 0.08–0.89 (8%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Sheary – Strome11:51
xG 2.04–0.34 (86%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas6:24
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Milano8:10
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Johansson – Mantha9:01
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Gustafsson14:17
xG 1.65–0.40 (80%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Irwin – Alexeyev6:18
xG 0.76–0.07 (91%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Jensen – Irwin2:13
xG 0.01–0.05 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).