Fri, Dec 9, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 116 | 018 | 244 |
| EDM | 215 | 114 | 29 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45EDMDerek RyanAssists: Devin Shore, Klim Kostin · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 8:59EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 11:24MINJoel Eriksson EkUnassisted · Snap, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 6:22MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 12:54EDMKailer YamamotoGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 3:43EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 19:51EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:07MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:29EDMKailer Yamamoto: Holding2 min
- P2 4:21EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:45EDMMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:55EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:16MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:29EDMBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:43MINSam Steel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:28
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Petan – Gaudreau – Boldy7:24
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel11:01
xG 0.47–0.75 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:10
xG 0.12–1.12 (9%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Merrill13:11
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:46
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:07
xG 0.78–1.39 (36%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestShore – Ryan – Kostin7:22
xG 0.92–0.35 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Puljujarvi – Hamblin – Holloway6:29
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid14:11
xG 0.86–0.78 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Yamamoto12:24
xG 0.46–0.92 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouchard – Broberg13:08
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Barrie – Kulak12:49
xG 0.99–0.54 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse16:20
xG 1.17–1.08 (52%)attempts 20–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).