Sat, Dec 10, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 111 | 28 | 333 |
| NSH | 08 | 112 | 19 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:57NSHYakov TreninAssists: Mark Jankowski, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 19:52OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Shane Pinto · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 3:55OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Shane Pinto, Drake Batherson · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 9:15OTTDrake BathersonPPGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 10:15NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:39OTTShane Pinto: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:05NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P2 5:03OTTAustin Watson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:00OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:00NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:34NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P2 13:49OTTDrake Batherson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:31NSHNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:15OTTAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:08NSHFilip Forsberg: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:21NSHMatt Duchene: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:10
xG 1.00–0.25 (80%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:37
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic7:21
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Motte – Gambrell – Kelly4:44
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom8:38
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson13:59
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom2:26
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg10:44
xG 0.53–0.26 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Sissons9:23
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Trenin – Jeannot – Parssinen5:47
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Glass – Smith5:33
xG 0.07–0.59 (10%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Gross2:12
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier4:03
xG 0.22–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Gross14:22
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).