Sat, Dec 10, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 19 | 04 | 01 | 226 |
| DAL | 15 | 117 | 010 | 11 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48DETDylan LarkinAssists: Austin Czarnik · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 18:06DALDenis GurianovAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 16:00DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 19:00DETDavid PerronAssists: Ben Chiarot, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 4:29DALNils LundkvistGWGAssists: Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.41 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:42DALColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:46DETGustav Lindstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:48DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:05DETJake Walman: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:08DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – Copp – Erne9:22
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond10:12
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Rasmussen – Suter10:26
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Czarnik – Veleno – Berggren9:06
xG 0.22–0.83 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider16:10
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Walman – Hronek14:23
xG 0.54–0.67 (45%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Lindstrom11:06
xG 0.09–1.65 (5%)attempts 6–27goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Gurianov – Johnston3:47
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta2:05
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Kiviranta3:26
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea2:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Heiskanen2:38
xG 0.55–0.01 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen3:06
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell9:32
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).