Sat, Dec 10, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Los Angeles Kings 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 216 | 07 | 212 | 435 |
| MTL | 05 | 010 | 27 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 9:53LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Phillip Danault, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 9:12LAKAlexander EdlerGWGAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–0
- P3 11:41MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 17:32MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Jordan Harris, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 19:23LAKAdrian KempeENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.39 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:18LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:53LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:13MTLEvgenii Dadonov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:46LAKAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P2 8:28MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Holding2 min
- P2 15:40MTLNick Suzuki: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:10MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte6:56
xG 0.86–0.13 (87%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore11:28
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kaliyev10:07
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Kempe – Vilardi – Iafallo8:04
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson17:16
xG 1.14–0.45 (72%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Edler – Walker10:54
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Roy – Durzi13:25
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hoffman – Dvorak5:13
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield7:37
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Slafkovský2:22
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Dach – Slafkovský5:01
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Guhle16:57
xG 0.94–0.71 (57%)attempts 19–16goals 1–2
- Kovacevic – Harris10:01
xG 0.03–0.86 (3%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Wideman – Xhekaj12:33
xG 0.06–1.14 (5%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).