Sat, Dec 10, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 3, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 17 | 112 | 333 |
| VAN | 04 | 019 | 012 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:43MINMatt BoldyPPGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 16:08MINConnor DewarSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 8:51MINSam SteelAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:24VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:35VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:02VANRiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:02MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:00MINJon Merrill: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:56MINSam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:06MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:39
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Walker – Boldy8:40
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:25
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel14:32
xG 0.97–1.03 (48%)attempts 20–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison12:06
xG 1.14–0.51 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton19:14
xG 0.82–0.96 (46%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:54
xG 0.87–1.03 (46%)attempts 21–20goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Horvat – Garland2:40
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson4:04
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Lazar – Joshua – Aman4:48
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Studnicka – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko4:28
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes5:09
xG 0.72–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes12:09
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Myers – Stillman10:48
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).