Sun, Dec 11, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 18 | 111 | 12 | 331 |
| STL | 09 | 011 | 212 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:58COLMikko RantanenAssists: Alex Newhook, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 8:01STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 18:24STLBrandon SaadSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 19:51COLMikko RantanenAssists: J.T. Compher, Devon Toews · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 0:29COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:08COLAlex Newhook: Holding2 min
- P1 8:35COLDevon Toews: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:28STLRobert Thomas: Holding2 min
- P2 7:37STLColton Parayko: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:52COLCale Makar: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 17:18STLBrayden Schenn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Rantanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Nichushkin – Rantanen8:34
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hudon – Foudy – Meyers5:08
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Rantanen2:32
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor8:26
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard3:25
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hunt – Englund5:05
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews7:44
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Leivo12:26
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Saad – Barbashev – Acciari4:03
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Saad – Barbashev5:37
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Walker – Acciari – Bitten3:20
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko16:31
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola7:25
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).