Sun, Dec 11, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 415 | 112 | 536 |
| WPG | 010 | 09 | 212 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:25WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Nic Dowd, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 8:21WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: John Carlson, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 9:55WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.28 xG3–0
- P2 15:24WSHLars EllerAssists: Anthony Mantha, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–0
- P3 0:35WPGAdam LowryAssists: Josh Morrissey, Morgan Barron · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 3:29WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Kyle Connor, Michael Eyssimont · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 17:48WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.49 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:29WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:39WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:42WPGDavid Gustafsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:17WSHLars Eller: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:55WPGJosh Morrissey: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 17:48WPGMark Scheifele: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Hathaway – Protas8:29
xG 0.79–0.09 (90%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Eller – Johansson – Mantha11:07
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Milano10:12
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome9:54
xG 0.07–1.11 (6%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – van Riemsdyk12:55
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Irwin – Johansen13:08
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov15:39
xG 0.71–1.60 (31%)attempts 13–27goals 1–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Harkins – Barron9:55
xG 1.03–0.17 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Connor – Dubois – Eyssimont12:13
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti12:31
xG 0.78–0.87 (47%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Gagner – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson5:02
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk9:28
xG 1.21–0.28 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Samberg3:47
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey8:21
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).