Mon, Dec 12, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 118 | 06 | 00 | 1 | 135 |
| MTL | 013 | 08 | 110 | 07 | 2 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:04CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 1:40MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Jordan Harris · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MTL Rem Pitlick stopped
- 2. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 3. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
- 4. CGY Rasmus Andersson stopped
- 5. MTL Kirby Dach scored
- 6. CGY Nazem Kadri stopped
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:36CGYNoah Hanifin: Interference2 min
- P1 3:03MTLJoel Armia: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:00CGYTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:54MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:54CGYConnor Mackey: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:53MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:10CGYMatthew Phillips: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:00MTLKirby Dach: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:51CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11CGYNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:32MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:38CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:38MTLNick Suzuki: Interference2 min
- P2 14:38MTLChris Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:03MTLKirby Dach: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:49CGYTyler Toffoli: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lewis won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Coleman – Ruzicka2:00
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube9:01
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Phillips – Ruzicka – Zohorna3:29
xG 0.12–0.21 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Toffoli – Huberdeau8:15
xG 0.40–0.50 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Andersson3:34
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stone – Mackey3:48
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Stone – Zadorov8:06
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Slafkovský9:07
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Dvorak4:46
xG 0.38–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Suzuki – Dach6:23
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield3:54
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris15:02
xG 0.79–0.56 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Guhle10:59
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Wideman – Xhekaj11:05
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).