Mon, Dec 12, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 07 | 08 | 127 |
| PIT | 111 | 09 | 15 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19DALRoope HintzAssists: Nils Lundkvist · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:14PITPierre-Olivier JosephPPAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 19:25PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:12PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:59DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:58DALRyan Suter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:26DALColin Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:36PITJan Rutta: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:24
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:35
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Gurianov – Johnston9:40
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea10:02
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Lundkvist17:25
xG 0.82–0.41 (66%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Miller – Lindell2:17
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust11:50
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling7:10
xG 0.21–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen9:11
xG 0.13–0.37 (25%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel13:58
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ruhwedel – Joseph10:48
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Rutta15:18
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson18:32
xG 0.64–0.70 (48%)attempts 20–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).