Mon, Dec 12, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 0, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 09 | 08 | 01 | 025 |
| STL | 09 | 04 | 07 | 14 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 2:23STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:17NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:49STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 15:16STLBrayden Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:28NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:05NSHRyan Johansen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:08STLNiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P2 14:09STLColton Parayko: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTrenin – Jeannot – Parssinen8:27
xG 0.98–0.24 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Sissons6:42
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Glass – Smith5:24
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:23
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro4:35
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro11:03
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Gross12:30
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Toropchenko6:34
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas3:07
xG 0.22–0.21 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Barbashev9:10
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Leivo – Saad8:51
xG 0.13–0.42 (23%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola6:59
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug13:41
xG 0.47–0.72 (39%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko13:29
xG 0.19–0.82 (19%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).