Tue, Dec 13, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 0, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 016 | 014 | 010 | 040 |
| BUF | 03 | 012 | 616 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:21BUFTage ThompsonPPGWGAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 9:56BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 10:09BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 14:31BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 16:27BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.07 xG0–5
- P3 18:33BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:25BUFDylan Cozens: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:56BUFOwen Power: Interference2 min
- P2 8:10LAKGabriel Vilardi: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:30LAKCarl Grundstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:30LAKTrevor Moore: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19LAKCarl Grundstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:07BUFPeyton Krebs: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:07LAKKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:57LAKCarl Grundstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Vilardi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Moore – Anderson-Dolan7:38
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kaliyev11:40
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Fagemo – Lizotte7:42
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Kempe – Vilardi – Iafallo10:07
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson17:09
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Walker – Bjornfot10:39
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Roy – Durzi14:35
xG 0.35–0.75 (32%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:34
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost2:50
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs7:44
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka7:58
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Power3:10
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Bryson – Power9:24
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Power2:12
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).