Tue, Dec 13, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 3, Boston Bruins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 18 | 18 | 01 | 1 | 326 |
| BOS | 28 | 110 | 09 | 06 | 2 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:07BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Taylor Hall, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 11:00NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 11:43NYINoah DobsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 18:28BOSDerek ForbortSHAssists: Pavel Zacha, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 4:40NYICasey CizikasAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal scored
- 3. BOS Jake DeBrusk scored
- 4. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 5. BOS David Pastrnak scored
- 6. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:34NYIZach Parise: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 5:31NYIRyan Pulock: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:41BOSJake DeBrusk: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:06BOSMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:39BOSA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:56NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:56BOSA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Pageau – Holmstrom9:03
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Barzal – Wahlstrom6:23
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Nelson8:24
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Lee – Barzal3:38
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov2:48
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pulock – Salo5:54
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Dobson11:43
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 18–7goals 3–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:54
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic3:56
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Zacha – DeBrusk10:17
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Foligno – Coyle – Frederic6:02
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy17:27
xG 1.01–0.69 (59%)attempts 17–22goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – Clifton6:21
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo3:59
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).