Tue, Dec 13, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 6, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 314 | 211 | 112 | 637 |
| NSH | 17 | 211 | 014 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15NSHCody GlassAssists: Roman Josi, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 8:19EDMZach HymanAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 14:50EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 19:55EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 3:22NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mark Jankowski · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 4:19EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 9:53NSHDante FabbroAssists: Yakov Trenin, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
- P2 18:55EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 17:23EDMZach HymanENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Cody Ceci · Poke, 0.73 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:52EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:58NSHTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:06EDMDylan Holloway: Interference2 min
- P2 11:55EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 13:12EDMDerek Ryan: Holding2 min
- P2 18:35NSHRoland McKeown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:49EDMBrad Malone: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Parssinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid11:21
xG 1.01–0.49 (67%)attempts 20–13goals 3–1
- Malone – Puljujarvi – Holloway3:54
xG 0.09–0.09 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Yamamoto10:43
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Shore – Ryan – Kostin5:33
xG 0.21–0.45 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse16:45
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Bouchard – Broberg9:18
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Kulak – Bouchard2:42
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Sissons – Glass2:46
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Trenin – Glass5:26
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jankowski – Smith5:13
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Sissons – Jeannot – Parssinen5:45
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro2:02
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro13:28
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Josi – Gross14:05
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).