Tue, Dec 13, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 215 | 19 | 39 | 633 |
| WPG | 18 | 210 | 216 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:30VGKDaniil MiromanovAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 19:58VGKMark StoneAssists: Nicolas Hague, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 11:16WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Adam Lowry, Dylan Samberg · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 15:34VGKMark StoneAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 16:13WPGSam GagnerAssists: Brenden Dillon, Kevin Stenlund · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 0:41WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 9:38VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Daniil Miromanov, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 17:44VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Daniil Miromanov, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 18:36VGKWilliam KarlssonENGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–4
- P3 19:58WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:59WPGDylan Samberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:39VGKAlec Martinez: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:06WPGBlake Wheeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 12:09VGKBen Hutton: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:57WPGNeal Pionk: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy12:10
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stone – Stephenson2:49
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter10:52
xG 0.65–0.60 (52%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Kessel – Amadio – Leschyshyn5:36
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Hague17:38
xG 0.84–0.49 (63%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Hutton – Pachal11:25
xG 0.39–0.43 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- McNabb – Hague2:02
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Harkins – Barron7:48
xG 0.58–0.14 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Gagner – Stenlund – Gustafsson6:53
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti12:18
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
- Connor – Dubois – Eyssimont8:20
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg14:24
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:31
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Dillon – Pionk14:12
xG 0.65–0.90 (42%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).