Tue, Dec 13, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 04 | 116 | 228 |
| COL | 010 | 29 | 16 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:52PHICam YorkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 9:25COLDevon ToewsAssists: J.T. Compher, Logan O'Connor · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 15:04COLArtturi LehkonenSHAssists: Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 11:33COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 16:22PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Travis Konecny, Kevin Hayes · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:43PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:37PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P2 12:04PHIMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:26COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:14COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Rantanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSedlak – Laughton – Farabee9:05
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – Willman5:05
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost9:58
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 9–21goals 1–2
- Hayes – Konecny – Cates10:33
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Provorov13:53
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York13:03
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Braun – Seeler11:05
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Compher – O'Connor7:59
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – Nichushkin – Rantanen10:21
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hudon – Foudy – Meyers4:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar8:48
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard6:10
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Englund – Girard2:02
xG 0.05–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).