Wed, Dec 14, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 02 | 110 | 05 | 117 |
| MIN | 17 | 211 | 14 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Sam Steel, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 8:02MINMathew DumbaGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 18:41DETElmer SoderblomAssists: Adam Erne · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 18:57MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 19:18MINFrederick GaudreauENAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:38DETOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P1 12:44DETLucas Raymond: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:00DETJordan Oesterle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:57MINRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:57DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:57DETBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:56MINJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:01MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:11MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestErne – Suter – Soderblom8:45
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Perron – Sundqvist – Rasmussen10:18
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Czarnik – Veleno2:40
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Copp – Berggren – Raymond2:49
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Walman4:49
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Walman – Seider5:52
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Lindstrom2:56
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Walker – Boldy5:29
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:52
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:05
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Boldy2:18
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:31
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton13:08
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison9:49
xG 0.18–0.69 (21%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).