Wed, Dec 14, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 27 | 112 | 03 | 05 | 1 | 427 |
| CGY | 216 | 111 | 09 | 02 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14VANBo HorvatAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 1:48VANConor GarlandAssists: Nils Hoglander, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 9:40CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Dillon Dube, Adam Ruzicka · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 16:09CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 3:51CGYTrevor LewisAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Jacob Markstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 5:31VANSheldon DriesAssists: Nils Hoglander, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 2. VAN Andrei Kuzmenko scored
- 3. CGY Dillon Dube stopped
- 4. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:16CGYBrett Ritchie: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 7:43VANSheldon Dries: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:35CGYMikael Backlund: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:41VANEthan Bear: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:59VANLuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:18VANNils Hoglander: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:18CGYMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00VANLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:44VANTyler Myers: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Dries – Hoglander7:15
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Joshua – Studnicka – Aman6:21
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Lazar8:30
xG 0.56–0.69 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko7:14
xG 0.02–0.46 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bear – Hughes13:29
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Myers – Burroughs12:34
xG 0.56–0.76 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson9:50
xG 0.62–0.89 (41%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Ritchie – Zohorna7:03
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube11:36
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Ruzicka8:54
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm6:26
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson11:04
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Stone – Mackey7:17
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
- Weegar – Zadorov18:27
xG 0.88–1.02 (46%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).