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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 15, 2022·TD Garden, Boston

Los Angeles Kings 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.

BOS winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
LAK0100828043330
BOS011210013012235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:53BOSTaylor HallAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:02BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P3 8:29LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 17:50LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Charlie Coyle scored
  2. 2. LAK Gabriel Vilardi scored
  3. 3. BOS Jake DeBrusk scored
  4. 4. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
  5. 5. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
  6. 6. LAK Kevin Fiala stopped
  7. 7. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
  8. 8. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
  9. 9. BOS David Krejci stopped
  10. 10. LAK Arthur Kaliyev stopped
  11. 11. BOS Taylor Hall stopped
  12. 12. LAK Phillip Danault stopped
  13. 13. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  14. 14. LAK Trevor Moore scored
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 10:54BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P1 14:15LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:18LAKCarl Grundstrom: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 2:48BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
  5. P2 9:20LAKBlake Lizotte: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  6. P2 18:15BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
  7. P3 9:49LAKSean Durzi: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 13:17LAKTrevor Moore: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 16:33BOSConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 16:40BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 19:20LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
  12. OT 3:35LAKPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
  13. OT 3:35BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
49% to win51% to win
← LAK attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKBOS
30Shots on goal35
2.4Expected goals3.0
62Shot attempts69
32Faceoffs won31
6Power plays6
14Penalty minutes14
13Hits22
20Blocked shots16
15Giveaways10
12Takeaways11

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. Danault – Moore – Iafallo10:44

    xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0

  2. Grundstrom – Kupari – Lizotte6:17

    xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  3. Kopitar – Fiala – Kaliyev8:46

    xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0

  4. Kempe – Anderson-Dolan – Vilardi6:25

    xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestEdler – Walker10:22

    xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0

  2. Roy – Durzi9:45

    xG 0.16–0.26 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0

  3. Doughty – Anderson15:08

    xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestCoyle – Hall – Frederic7:49

    xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

  2. Foligno – Nosek – Greer5:20

    xG 0.02–0.01 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0

  3. Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk8:50

    xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0

  4. Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha7:51

    xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGrzelcyk – Carlo8:58

    xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0

  2. Lindholm – Clifton11:18

    xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0

  3. Grzelcyk – Clifton2:13

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.0 xGLAK 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #312 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.04 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 6% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.

BOS winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).