Thu, Dec 15, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 19 | 11 | 421 |
| COL | 012 | 012 | 217 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Kale Clague · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 7:08BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 17:11BUFRasmus DahlinGWGAssists: Tyson Jost, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 8:20COLMikko RantanenAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 18:38COLEvan RodriguesAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:02BUFDylan CozensENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:04BUFCasey Fitzgerald: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:09COLDryden Hunt: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 0:55COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:42BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Rantanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Hinostroza – Krebs5:15
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Jost10:21
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 1–9goals 1–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka9:47
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Mittelstadt13:17
xG 0.53–1.02 (34%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Dahlin9:02
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin3:22
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Fitzgerald – Samuelsson6:49
xG 0.30–0.31 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Nichushkin – Rantanen9:30
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 17–6goals 1–2
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor5:12
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Rodrigues2:51
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Rantanen3:44
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:29
xG 1.45–0.36 (80%)attempts 26–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard10:48
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).