Fri, Dec 16, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 09 | 112 | 130 |
| MIN | 110 | 27 | 15 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Sam Steel · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:32MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Sam Steel · Poke, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 19:17MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 8:27CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 17:51MINMats ZuccarelloENAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:29MINMason Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:40CHIPatrick Kane: Interference2 min
- P1 13:55MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:55MINCalen Addison: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:55CHIColin Blackwell: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:51MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:46CHIPhilipp Kurashev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:20MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Khaira – Johnson7:40
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Dickinson – Entwistle8:40
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Raddysh – Kurashev7:19
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Kane – Domi – Lafferty12:44
xG 0.41–0.90 (31%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones13:30
xG 0.96–0.50 (66%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Murphy – Jones2:25
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Murphy13:21
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel11:52
xG 1.10–0.38 (74%)attempts 22–5goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Walker – Boldy8:53
xG 0.16–0.11 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar9:03
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:10
xG 0.05–0.34 (12%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:16
xG 0.95–0.50 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:11
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison14:16
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).