Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 28 | 17 | 12 | 417 |
| EDM | 111 | 115 | 123 | 349 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Derek Ryan, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 14:37ANASam CarrickAssists: Mason McTavish, Jayson Megna · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:19ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Mason McTavish, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 8:31ANARyan StromeUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 19:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 2:06EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 6:08ANAJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Frank Vatrano, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:18EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:06EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:13ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:44EDMBrett Kulak: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:44ANARyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:30EDMCody Ceci: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:30ANAAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:57ANAJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:36ANATrevor Zegras: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:18ANARyan Strome: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:32ANADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:17ANATrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Carrick – Megna – McTavish2:18
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Strome – Terry – Zegras2:21
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras10:08
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Comtois – Leason – McTavish7:30
xG 0.04–0.40 (10%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Fowler7:35
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Benoit2:09
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Klingberg5:59
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Yamamoto3:03
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – Holloway2:43
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ryan – Puljujarvi – Holloway4:02
xG 0.32–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Draisaitl3:43
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Kulak6:46
xG 0.70–0.14 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Niemelainen3:03
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse3:08
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).