Sat, Dec 17, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 16 | 213 | 02 | 430 |
| CAR | 28 | 113 | 115 | 12 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20CARStefan NoesenPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 17:03CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 18:38DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 5:38DALJamie BennPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 13:54CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 2:44CARSeth JarvisAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 9:05DALTyler SeguinAssists: Colin Miller · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 10:47DALJani HakanpääAssists: Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 2:19CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:15DALTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:00CARCalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P1 8:00DALJoel Kiviranta: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:47CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:03CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:25CARCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:55CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:12DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 8:54CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:54DALJani Hakanpää: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:15DALWyatt Johnston: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 13:12DALJani Hakanpää: Interference2 min
- P2 14:23CARSeth Jarvis: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:08
xG 0.61–0.21 (75%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Glendening – Dellandrea – Kiviranta6:59
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Seguin – Faksa – Gurianov10:05
xG 0.20–0.55 (27%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Benn – Marchment – Johnston9:04
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Heiskanen2:37
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Miller13:09
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist12:03
xG 0.20–0.36 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis8:23
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov11:13
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook12:33
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Stepan – Noesen – Drury7:46
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:47
xG 0.88–0.52 (63%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- de Haan – Chatfield12:37
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin15:06
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).