Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 26 | 111 | 429 |
| NJD | 012 | 17 | 113 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:49FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Zac Dalpe, Aleksi Heponiemi · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 11:27NJDJohn MarinoAssists: Jack Hughes, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 19:20FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Eetu Luostarinen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 16:30NJDErik HaulaAssists: Michael McLeod, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 18:49FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: Grigori Denisenko, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:38NJDBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:01FLAEric Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:27FLAAleksi Heponiemi: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 12:39FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P3 12:39NJDBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:39FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Cousins – Lomberg11:47
xG 1.25–0.72 (63%)attempts 17–24goals 0–1
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen4:32
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart4:25
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Heponiemi – Denisenko2:03
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:46
xG 1.07–0.24 (82%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Mahura3:15
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling2:31
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Hischier – Mercer6:14
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Haula – Bratt – Hughes5:35
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Hughes – Mercer2:18
xG 0.14–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Tatar – Bratt – Hischier4:30
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Marino13:20
xG 0.83–0.09 (90%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler15:31
xG 0.78–0.66 (54%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
- Siegenthaler – Marino2:16
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).