Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 211 | 316 | 635 |
| PHI | 18 | 114 | 110 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:58NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:09NYRK'Andre MillerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 12:14NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 17:56PHIScott LaughtonSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 6:22NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 7:53PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Travis Sanheim, Cam York · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 17:52NYRJacob TroubaENAssists: K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.39 xG5–3
- P3 19:12NYRKaapo KakkoENAssists: Ryan Lindgren · Other, 0.79 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:46NYRAdam Fox: Holding2 min
- P2 4:26NYRBen Harpur: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:49NYRK'Andre Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:37PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:40NYRVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Blais – Kravtsov8:24
xG 0.60–0.09 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Trocheck – Vesey10:01
xG 0.82–0.34 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière9:52
xG 0.35–0.18 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Goodrow – Panarin12:31
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 10–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren16:27
xG 1.32–0.20 (87%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Harpur – Schneider10:46
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Trouba – Miller16:17
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Cates – Farabee2:16
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Farabee10:20
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Laughton – Bellows – Lycksell5:34
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost10:07
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York10:43
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Braun – Sanheim3:03
xG 0.10–0.16 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – York2:48
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).