Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 08 | 18 | 126 |
| COL | 08 | 212 | 110 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:38COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 19:44COLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 3:25NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 19:28COLCale MakarENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:59NSHJordan Gross: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:45COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:52COLAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:50NSHYakov Trenin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:01NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Sissons – Glass6:17
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg7:18
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Granlund – Niederreiter – Glass2:08
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Forsberg – Parssinen3:49
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro15:06
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Josi – Gross14:44
xG 0.58–0.38 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:21
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook8:54
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Meyers8:14
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Compher – Lehkonen – Rantanen9:58
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hudon – Hunt – Foudy3:08
xG 0.04–0.33 (12%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:34
xG 0.69–0.57 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Hunt – Englund9:07
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard14:39
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).