Sat, Dec 17, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Islanders 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 29 | 28 | 526 |
| VGK | 09 | 117 | 112 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:58NYIAnders LeeAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Robin Salo · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:11VGKReilly SmithPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 4:30NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Sebastian Aho, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 17:36NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 3:29VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:32NYIBrock NelsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–2
- P3 19:48NYIZach PariseENAssists: Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:38VGKWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min
- P1 14:20NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00NYICasey Cizikas: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:58NYIHudson Fasching: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:19VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Cizikas – Fasching8:38
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom10:05
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier9:26
xG 0.37–0.54 (40%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom9:10
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson3:41
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Romanov3:03
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Pulock – Aho2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy9:54
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stone – Stephenson9:43
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 18–10goals 0–2
- Amadio – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg8:14
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:50
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Hague15:20
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- McNabb – Miromanov10:57
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton11:15
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).