Sun, Dec 18, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 07 | 216 | 228 |
| MIN | 111 | 29 | 13 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:19MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:34MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Sam Steel, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:27MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 4:58OTTMark KastelicAssists: Travis Hamonic, Parker Kelly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:20OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 19:34MINFrederick GaudreauENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:23OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:03MINMathew Dumba: Delaying game2 min
- P2 10:25OTTAnton Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:18MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P3 6:13MINJake Middleton: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Kastelic – Kelly2:12
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Giroux – Kastelic – Tkachuk2:37
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Watson – Motte2:18
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Brassard – Tkachuk5:24
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson12:56
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Holden – Brannstrom8:28
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom4:20
xG 0.06–0.12 (36%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel11:07
xG 0.79–0.62 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Boldy6:31
xG 0.06–0.02 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar6:30
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:39
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton13:30
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba14:43
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison9:46
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).