Sun, Dec 18, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 17 | 38 | 525 |
| SJS | 13 | 013 | 110 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13CGYTyler ToffoliUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:11SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:01CGYMilan LucicAssists: Elias Lindholm, Trevor Lewis · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 0:16CGYElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 0:35CGYElias LindholmAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 2:10CGYDillon DubeAssists: Nazem Kadri, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 7:56SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:06CGYAdam Ruzicka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:00SJSJaycob Megna: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:11SJSTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:30CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:09CGYDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:09CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:06SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:50CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:12CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:58CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min
- P3 16:46SJSKevin Labanc: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:44CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Ruzicka3:58
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Mangiapane8:52
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube9:11
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Backlund2:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson13:25
xG 0.98–0.20 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 4–0
- Weegar – Zadorov14:58
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Stone – Gilbert3:14
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Nieto – Hertl – Meier5:49
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Labanc – Svechnikov – Sturm4:17
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Gregor – Gadjovich5:51
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Nieto – Svechnikov – Sturm3:13
xG 0.05–0.20 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Simek8:45
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Simek2:33
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Benning12:29
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).