Mon, Dec 19, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 3, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 319 | 011 | 339 |
| BOS | 312 | 27 | 27 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51BOSConnor CliftonAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:04BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 16:07BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Trent Frederic, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 1:38BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 3:02FLASam ReinhartAssists: Matt Kiersted, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P2 5:42FLAEric StaalAssists: Gustav Forsling, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 8:22FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 11:50BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 8:52BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–6
- P3 13:18BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.26 xG3–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:40FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:16FLAGustav Forsling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32BOSDavid Pastrnak: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 4:12BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:12FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:20BOSHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:37FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:25BOSTrent Frederic: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:49FLAMatt Kiersted: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Cousins – Lomberg7:58
xG 0.60–0.24 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Luostarinen11:41
xG 0.49–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Bennett – White – Tkachuk13:50
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
- Dalpe – Heponiemi – Denisenko6:15
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:40
xG 0.96–0.52 (65%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
- Montour – Mahura7:12
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Staal – Kiersted2:36
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Hall – Frederic5:38
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha7:31
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk11:37
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak4:18
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo11:07
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:39
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy13:50
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).