Mon, Dec 19, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 113 | 17 | 03 | 333 |
| NSH | 114 | 29 | 011 | 11 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 8:42EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Darnell Nurse, Jack Campbell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:57NSHJordan GrossAssists: Yakov Trenin, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 4:22EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.29 xG2–2
- P2 12:02NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Cody Glass · Snap, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 1:51EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 2:12NSHAlexandre CarrierGWGAssists: Cody Glass, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:34NSHCole Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 3:30NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 4:59EDMCody Ceci: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:25EDMKlim Kostin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid14:28
xG 1.35–0.77 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – Holloway8:53
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Yamamoto12:44
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Shore – Ryan – Kostin7:10
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak12:32
xG 0.76–0.56 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Nurse – Niemelainen2:11
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard2:11
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Forsberg – Novak9:27
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Trenin8:55
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Sissons – Parssinen – Smith9:41
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Jeannot – Glass8:09
xG 0.19–0.72 (21%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Gross16:34
xG 0.85–0.36 (70%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Lauzon – Fabbro11:15
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro3:36
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).