Mon, Dec 19, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Buffalo Sabres 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 37 | 05 | 318 |
| VGK | 010 | 010 | 223 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:53BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch, Lawrence Pilut · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:15BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Casey Fitzgerald · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 13:28BUFLawrence PilutGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Peyton Krebs · Slap, 0.01 xG3–0
- P3 3:54VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Michael Amadio, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 17:38VGKReilly SmithAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:59VGKKeegan Kolesar: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:18BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:58BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P3 9:47BUFMattias Samuelsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:03BUFKyle Okposo: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt4:41
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka5:51
xG 0.04–0.19 (15%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs7:45
xG 0.12–0.44 (22%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson12:07
xG 0.51–0.89 (37%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Dahlin2:02
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Samuelsson2:25
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Pilut7:43
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy8:57
xG 0.85–0.08 (92%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:12
xG 0.94–0.30 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Amadio5:59
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Amadio – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg3:19
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo18:08
xG 1.26–0.49 (72%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Hutton – Hague10:03
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- McNabb – Miromanov12:32
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).