Tue, Dec 20, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 010 | 110 | 228 |
| PIT | 07 | 210 | 17 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22NYRChris KreiderAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 14:24PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:47PITBryan RustPPAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 8:40PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 10:03NYRChris KreiderAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonny Brodzinski · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:58PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Holding2 min
- P1 13:59PITMarcus Pettersson: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:07NYRAdam Fox: Holding2 min
- P2 3:28PITKasperi Kapanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:43NYRK'Andre Miller: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:09NYRSammy Blais: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Trocheck – Brodzinski2:43
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Brodzinski – Blais – Kravtsov3:32
xG 0.02–0.05 (25%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Goodrow – Panarin13:11
xG 0.21–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kreider – Trocheck – Vesey9:04
xG 0.33–0.57 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller15:14
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Harpur – Schneider10:12
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren15:50
xG 0.28–0.84 (25%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:42
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust13:29
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Poehling3:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen9:37
xG 0.09–0.46 (17%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson17:14
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Dumoulin – Rutta15:10
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph8:56
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).