Tue, Dec 20, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 014 | 111 | 138 |
| CAR | 17 | 26 | 17 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Seth Jarvis, Calvin de Haan · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 4:17CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 6:21CARTeuvo TeravainenSHAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 15:24NJDJack HughesAssists: Brendan Smith, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 16:46CARStefan NoesenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:56CARMartin Necas: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:26NJDBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 18:39CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P2 1:43NJDErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:31CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:35CARJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:58NJDErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:00NJDDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bratt – Hughes10:09
xG 1.02–0.13 (89%)attempts 16–2goals 1–1
- Tatar – Hischier – Zetterlund5:36
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Sharangovich – Holtz2:17
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Wood – McLeod – Zetterlund2:41
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Severson9:42
xG 0.99–0.02 (98%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Severson4:52
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Graves2:46
xG 0.04–0.28 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Noesen – Drury8:07
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis6:55
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov12:44
xG 0.48–0.79 (38%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:37
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Chatfield10:05
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce12:48
xG 0.17–0.62 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin15:53
xG 0.76–1.29 (37%)attempts 14–26goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).