Tue, Dec 20, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
St. Louis Blues 2, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 011 | 27 | 224 |
| SEA | 110 | 316 | 17 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:27SEARyan DonatoAssists: Adam Larsson, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 10:00SEACarson SoucyAssists: Will Borgen, Alexander Wennberg · Poke, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 16:58SEADaniel SprongGWGAssists: Morgan Geekie, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 19:16SEAJared McCannUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–4
- P3 5:59STLColton ParaykoAssists: Logan Brown, Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 10:54STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 15:47SEABrandon TanevENAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Poke, 0.79 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:05SEACarson Soucy: Interference2 min
- P1 4:26STLNick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P2 6:07STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:34STLNiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:36SEAJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:16STLBrandon Saad: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 8:54SEAJared McCann: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Leivo – Saad9:27
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Brown2:38
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Walker – Brown – Toropchenko4:59
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Acciari7:27
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Faulk2:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug13:23
xG 0.83–0.88 (49%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko17:01
xG 0.72–0.78 (48%)attempts 21–17goals 0–3
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:02
xG 1.00–0.43 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie7:15
xG 0.37–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:26
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Gourde – Burakovsky – Donato10:08
xG 0.27–0.90 (23%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn16:07
xG 0.79–0.22 (78%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak13:43
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen11:55
xG 0.64–1.19 (35%)attempts 11–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).