Tue, Dec 20, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 7, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 212 | 112 | 415 | 739 |
| SJS | 19 | 15 | 113 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 0:30CGYDillon DubeAssists: Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 14:58SJSNico SturmAssists: Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 10:04CGYTrevor LewisAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 19:23SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Scott Harrington, Matt Nieto · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 3:58SJSTimo MeierAssists: Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:04CGYNazem KadriGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 16:43CGYMilan LucicAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 18:22CGYTyler ToffoliENAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.73 xG6–3
- P3 18:42CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:13CGYBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:13SJSNico Sturm: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:01CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:17SJSRadim Simek: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:44CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:09SJSNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28CGYMilan Lucic: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:43
xG 0.99–0.08 (93%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau11:25
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:47
xG 0.61–0.47 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
- Lewis – Ritchie – Ruzicka7:36
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson17:15
xG 1.02–0.60 (63%)attempts 18–17goals 3–1
- Stone – Zadorov10:44
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Tanev – Weegar15:58
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Barabanov4:19
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Nieto – Labanc2:23
xG 0.08–0.20 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Bonino – Labanc – Meier6:54
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Svechnikov – Gregor – Sturm9:11
xG 0.08–0.47 (15%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Benning13:34
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Harrington13:25
xG 0.63–0.87 (42%)attempts 10–19goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Ferraro2:43
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).