Wed, Dec 21, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 4, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 015 | 310 | 433 |
| FLA | 112 | 114 | 010 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45FLAEric StaalAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 7:01NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 16:12FLAEetu LuostarinenPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:44NJDJesper BrattAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 10:10NJDYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Michael McLeod · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:20NJDTomas TatarENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.79 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:56FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:56NJDErik Haula: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:56FLAAnton Lundell: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:01FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:16NJDKevin Bahl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:20FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:20FLAAaron Ekblad: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20NJDDamon Severson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20FLABrandon Montour: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bratt – Hughes12:27
xG 0.78–0.33 (70%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Zetterlund13:35
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Sharangovich – Mercer2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wood – Bratt – Hughes2:09
xG 0.01–0.33 (4%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Siegenthaler2:16
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler8:59
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Bahl4:05
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Cousins – Lomberg11:49
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell11:15
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Dalpe – White – Denisenko5:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk14:21
xG 0.62–1.10 (36%)attempts 17–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour10:18
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Ekblad – Forsling16:51
xG 0.84–0.54 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Montour – Mahura6:44
xG 0.38–0.17 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).