Wed, Dec 21, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 1, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 04 | 03 | 01 | 120 |
| COL | 012 | 014 | 19 | 11 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48MTLAnthony RichardAssists: Jake Evans, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 2:16COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 1:51COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 18:16MTLArber Xhekaj: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:09MTLAnthony Richard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:55COLDenis Malgin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rodrigues won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield13:57
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Richard6:33
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Dvorak9:58
xG 0.05–0.51 (9%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Slafkovský9:47
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kovacevic – Harris18:13
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Guhle16:28
xG 0.09–0.30 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Harris – Guhle3:00
xG 0.05–0.38 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Lehkonen – Rantanen13:32
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Malgin – O'Connor – Meyers10:27
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Nichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook13:06
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Englund6:35
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Englund – Toews2:18
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard14:18
xG 0.56–0.51 (53%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).