Wed, Dec 21, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 6, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 213 | 38 | 634 |
| DAL | 111 | 211 | 05 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:49DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:55EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Klim Kostin, Evan Bouchard · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:27DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Mason Marchment, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 2:36EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.38 xG2–2
- P2 8:18EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 17:56DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Mason Marchment, Nils Lundkvist · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 11:46EDMWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 16:17EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Cody Ceci, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 16:49EDMMattias JanmarkENAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Klim Kostin · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:45EDMMattias Janmark: Interference2 min
- P1 17:45DALMason Marchment: Holding2 min
- P2 2:11DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:32EDMBrett Kulak: Interference2 min
- P2 16:36EDMWarren Foegele: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:42EDMKlim Kostin: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:47DALTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:36EDMZach Hyman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Foegele – Yamamoto10:17
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Ryan – Hamblin – Holloway6:35
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi12:02
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Kostin10:29
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse14:11
xG 1.08–0.37 (75%)attempts 23–14goals 1–1
- Niemelainen – Bouchard14:34
xG 0.80–0.26 (75%)attempts 19–9goals 3–0
- Barrie – Kulak14:58
xG 0.13–0.57 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Marchment – Johnston10:14
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:40
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Seguin – Dellandrea – Kiviranta9:36
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
- Glendening – Faksa – Tufte5:07
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hakanpää – Lindell15:51
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Miller13:54
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 1–3
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist13:17
xG 0.58–1.00 (37%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).