Thu, Dec 22, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 115 | 011 | 12 | 340 |
| OTT | 15 | 07 | 112 | 01 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Nick Holden, Shane Pinto · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:01WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 5:25WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 3:04OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 2:04WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:39OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:49WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:15OTTParker Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:59WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:17OTTDylan Gambrell: Interference2 min
- P3 0:18WSHSonny Milano: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 9:32WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:08WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chartier won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Hathaway – Protas5:55
xG 0.66–0.20 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome9:59
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Milano – Aube-Kubel8:18
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Mantha7:48
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen17:40
xG 1.46–0.32 (82%)attempts 24–17goals 0–0
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk7:40
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – Gustafsson15:11
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto10:48
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly2:57
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Chartier – Gambrell – Kelly3:16
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gambrell – Kastelic – Kelly2:00
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Heatherington7:30
xG 0.32–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson10:04
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot2:00
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).