Thu, Dec 22, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 213 | 06 | 08 | 227 |
| BOS | 010 | 216 | 113 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Cole Perfetti, Karson Kuhlman · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 7:20WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Josh Morrissey, Adam Lowry · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 12:08BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Nick Foligno, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 15:00BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 11:08BOSNick FolignoGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:13BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:59WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P1 17:58BOSTaylor Hall: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:20WPGKevin Stenlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:21WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:30WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Kuhlman – Perfetti11:26
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois10:40
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Barron7:08
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson5:16
xG 0.04–0.82 (5%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:59
xG 0.68–0.26 (72%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk2:05
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:09
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Foligno – Pastrnak2:32
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:48
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak4:07
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic5:23
xG 0.17–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:56
xG 0.81–0.20 (80%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy12:13
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Lindholm – McAvoy3:06
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).