Thu, Dec 22, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 13 | 011 | 214 | 02 | 330 |
| LAK | 110 | 06 | 214 | 12 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 17:41LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Sean Walker, Blake Lizotte · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:29LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Alex Iafallo · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 1:39LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 6:46CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Adam Ruzicka · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 13:32CGYDillon DubeAssists: Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:23LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:44CGYNazem Kadri: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:44LAKKevin Fiala: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:51CGYTyler Toffoli: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:35CGYMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:36LAKMatt Roy: Interference2 min
- P3 5:27LAKSean Walker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:50CGYMichael Stone: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:12
xG 1.15–0.53 (68%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Lewis – Ritchie – Ruzicka7:29
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau11:52
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:17
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson18:10
xG 1.46–0.75 (66%)attempts 27–18goals 1–0
- Tanev – Weegar14:54
xG 0.52–0.85 (38%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
- Stone – Zadorov10:05
xG 0.02–0.56 (3%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Vilardi – Lizotte11:53
xG 0.88–0.76 (54%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe14:07
xG 0.80–0.88 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Danault – Moore – Iafallo11:00
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Grundstrom – Anderson-Dolan – Kupari4:39
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Durzi16:36
xG 1.46–0.60 (71%)attempts 25–11goals 2–1
- Doughty – Anderson20:15
xG 0.77–1.10 (41%)attempts 16–21goals 0–1
- Edler – Walker10:18
xG 0.08–0.64 (12%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).