Thu, Dec 22, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 16 | 010 | 226 |
| SJS | 210 | 211 | 14 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Jaycob Megna, Alexander Barabanov · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 2:20MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 11:37SJSNoah GregorAssists: Erik Karlsson, Matt Benning · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 12:47SJSTimo MeierPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 17:19SJSOskar LindblomAssists: Erik Karlsson, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 19:54MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 19:46SJSKevin LabancENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:35MINSam Steel: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:20SJSErik Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:23SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:12MINCalen Addison: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:03SJSEvgeny Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:05SJSJaycob Megna: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:05MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 12:14MINMason Shaw: Kneeing5 min
- P2 12:14MINMason Shaw: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 18:00MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:19SJSMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:49MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Boldy2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel9:35
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar4:09
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Reaves – Greenway – Eriksson Ek3:00
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison5:42
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon3:44
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton7:40
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Nieto – Labanc7:14
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Barabanov8:52
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Svechnikov – Gregor – Sturm4:51
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich5:16
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Ferraro9:21
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Megna11:32
xG 0.30–0.29 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Benning8:37
xG 0.20–0.33 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).