Fri, Dec 23, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 110 | 316 | 531 |
| CAR | 314 | 315 | 08 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57CARJesper FastAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:03PHITravis SanheimAssists: Morgan Frost, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:32CARStefan NoesenPPAssists: Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 19:05CARJesper FastAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 1:01PHITony DeAngeloAssists: Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 5:57CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Martin Necas, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 7:58CARJordan MartinookAssists: Brett Pesce, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P2 17:52CARJesperi KotkaniemiPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 6:59PHINick SeelerAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–6
- P3 7:41PHIScott LaughtonSHAssists: Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–6
- P3 12:24PHITravis KonecnySHAssists: Scott Laughton, Cam York · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:52PHIMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:56PHINick Seeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:29CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:27PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:46PHITony DeAngelo: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:26CARPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Allison5:29
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Laughton – Allison – Cates3:27
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost7:31
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen8:21
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen6:07
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Seeler – York5:29
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov5:29
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Necas – Svechnikov12:09
xG 1.20–0.38 (76%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Stepan – Noesen – Kotkaniemi8:24
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:56
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis9:20
xG 0.44–0.45 (50%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:32
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin14:44
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 23–7goals 2–1
- de Haan – Chatfield12:11
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).